There is room for some optimism for the rest of this decade at least, for the local television broadcast station groups, the national broadcast networks, regional sports networks and TV syndication.
The positive economic indicators include the meteoric rise of FAST channels, the tightening of consumer budgets, Nextgen TV, increased solidarity within local communities, forecasts of creator talent possibly gaining a dominant share of content, the inevitable growth of new types of sports such as women’s sports and soccer, and the possibility of the current administration leaning into legislation favorable to the accelerated rollout of Nextgen TV. Even the expectation of improvements in generative AI is a positive indicator for any industry whose success depends on the affordability of audience-drawing video content.
Less visible to casual observers is the increased sophistication levels of the local broadcast community, which is becoming alert to the importance of proving ROI to advertisers big and small. This is an area where local has trailed national in the past but local is rapidly catching up so far in the present decade. It has been a painful lesson taught by the flow of dollars to digital, whose “databilities” have been a more important part of the equation than any inherent ROI advantage. In fact, television usually wins big when ROIs are compared using the most accurate and objective methods.
The reason we list FAST channels as a positive sign for broadcasters is because FAST’s success proves that viewers like free linear TV, meaning they are somewhat sick of having to spend 23 minutes each day trying to figure out what to watch on SVOD/AVOD. TV has always been about relaxing with alpha waves, and the mental work involved in figuring out what to watch among too many alternatives works against the basic instincts when it’s TV time.
Of course, FAST is just another competitor to local broadcasters. Or is it? It only costs about $100K to set up a FAST channel, so local broadcasters could set up their own. On the other hand, with Nextgen, they can have as many channels as they want going out over the airwaves instead of through the Internet. Going both ways might be another winning strategy.
Going out over the airwaves used to be the only way TV was done. Today, homes with antennas are only 20% of the US population ages 2-99 (see table below courtesy of my client Nielsen). These 20% account for 44% of the total weekly viewing minutes of broadcast TV programs. The rest of the viewing comes in through MVPDs/vMVPDs and in some cases, through the station’s app to smart TVs and smartphones/tablets/computers. Stations are smart to have apps and to make sure viewers know they exist and how to get and use them. Nielsen now makes it possible to count those impressions.
It's possible that local broadcasters are not making enough use of apps. As shown in the table below, weekly broadcast program viewing minutes are 2.5X greater in homes without smart TVs than in homes with smart TVs. This is a clear signal to broadcasters to take some action that will remove the current destructive effects of smart TVs on their business.
The highest viewing levels to broadcast are in homes with no smart TV, no Multichannel (MVPD/vMVPD) service, and with antenna, where weekly broadcast program viewing minutes are nearly 6X what they are across all smart TV homes.
Lloyd Darbonne, Vice President Research, Insights & Strategy at FOX Corp, on Kym Frank’s elite team, led me to ask Nielsen to run the analysis below with his suggestion that broadcasters could incentivize smart TV manufacturers to package in antennas with their smart TVs. He also suggested that one type of incentive could be enabling the OEM (original equipment manufacturer) to offer X months of free viewing to broadcaster-owned premium streaming channels.
Another way of incentivizing this form of cooperation would be to partner on certain addressable ad inventory.
The antennas that could be packaged in with smart TVs should ideally be able to pick up not only today’s signals but also Nextgen signals.
Television technology consultant Scott Brown, best known for his Technology Strategy role at Nielsen for many years, suggests that Best Buy (who does private label manufacturing) could manufacture the antennas and be in the best position to help consumers with the installation.
Free television, including both broadcasting and FAST/AVOD channels, will play a big role in the next few years if the economy continues in its present direction.
My career-long friend and RMT colleague, the inimitable Josh Chasin, has long warned us that higher-income viewers are gradually blocking themselves off from advertising. The way around this for the advertising industry is sponsorship with branded integration and cast presenter participation. This is a form not limited to national sell side, it can also be used by broadcast station groups and by individual stations. This type of programming will not necessarily be blocked by upper income people; it will all depend on the programming itself.
The natural content partners of a TV station are the creative people in its coverage area. This includes creators who have already built large audiences in digital. This also includes local youth sports and women’s sports teams, local bands, generative AI creators, the theatrical and media departments of local universities, local public and private schools, local writers and thinkers and artists and performers of all kinds. These types of talent can help win the hearts of local communities and make a station stickier, and a place where viewers will check into more frequently and stay longer.
I so believe in this idea that I formed a consultancy to help stations do this local talent discovery and development work. It’s called The NewStar Groupand is led by Larry Novenstern and Keith Ferguson, best known for their long leadership in sports sponsorship and Olympics management. Keith reminds us that the US Census finds that 54% of Americans ages 6-17 participate in youth sports, a huge family market if the station looks beyond the obvious football and basketball to all sports, boys and girls. The NewStar Group is looking for and finding talent that are not only entertaining but who are also All American, not divisive but unifying in their approach to life, and therefore great role models, the type of talent that sponsors can be proud of sponsoring.
New and exciting content can be found in many places, including some where you might never think of looking, such as in competing media types. Why not consider creating free broadcast programming based on the best of YouTube or TikTok, the best of generative AI video, the use of generative AI video to convert great print articles to video… the shackles of the mind can be dropped off and what will come of it is a whole new television of great current and future relevance to all generations and segments.
Coverage Area: Total US
Demographic: Persons 2 – 99
Playback Period: Live + SD | TV | Linear with VOD
Measurement Period: 4/28/25 - 5/4/25
Posted at MediaVillage through the Thought Leadership self-publishing platform.
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